During the 1930s much of the world faced harsh economic conditions. 1929-1945: … Madsen, Jakob B. John D. Rockefeller said "These are days when many are discouraged. These photos show better than charts and numbers the economic impact of the Great Depression. Sooner or later, it must become apparent that this economic situation is built on sand. In Leopoldville, the population decreased by 33%, because of this labour migration. There is no consensus among economists regarding the motive force for the U.S. economic expansion that continued through most of the Roosevelt years (and the 1937 recession that interrupted it). The Securities Act of 1933 comprehensively regulated the securities industry. The Great Depression was a worldwide economic depression that lasted 10 years. Social Security remained in place. [113] Falling export demand and commodity prices placed massive downward pressures on wages. city average, All items,” Retrieve Data, Select “More Formatting Options,” Select “12-month percent change” and “Range between 1913 to present,” Retrieve Data. Where many of us may have that '30s feeling, in light of the DJIA, the CPI, and the national unemployment rate, we are simply not living in the '30s. [2] The Great Depression is commonly used as an example of how intensely the global economy can decline. [37] Banks began to fail as debtors defaulted on debt and depositors attempted to withdraw their deposits en masse, triggering multiple bank runs. The mobilization of manpower following the outbreak of war in 1939 ended unemployment. [122] The budget cuts delayed the schedule for creating systems of higher education. [7] The Great Depression changed Many women also worked outside the home, or took boarders, did laundry for trade or cash, and did sewing for neighbors in exchange for something they could offer. The Carnegie Commission on Poor Whites had concluded in 1931 that nearly one-third of Afrikaners lived as paupers. [4] Some economies started to recover by the mid-1930s. It held the economy produced more than it consumed, because the consumers did not have enough income. With these positive expectations, interest rates at zero began to stimulate investment just as they were expected to do. On the contrary, the present depression is a collapse resulting from these long-term trends. However,[11] some dispute this conclusion and see the stock crash as a symptom, rather than a cause, of the Great Depression. 2. [16] By May 1930, automobile sales had declined to below the levels of 1928. Monetarists believe that the Great Depression started as an ordinary recession, but the shrinking of the money supply greatly exacerbated the economic situation, causing a recession to descend into the Great Depression. Accessed April 22, 2020. [78] Investors withdrew their short-term money from Germany, as confidence spiraled downward. In 1943, it added another $64 billion., While anything is possible, it's unlikely to happen again. Farming communities and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by about 60%. "Friedman and Schwartz, Monetary History of the United States", 352. Instead, the Fed allowed the total supply of U.S. dollars to fall by a third. This had a chilling effect on all civilian bureaucrats in the Japanese government. [127] While the 1920s grew at the very strong rate of 4.43% per year, the 1930s rate fell to only 0.63%. His experience is relevant to both business and personal finance topics. The Balance uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. This was followed by the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 which created the Securities and Exchange Commission. MacDonald wanted to resign, but King George V insisted he remain and form an all-party coalition "National Government". From 1934, the military's dominance of the government continued to grow. Pure re-distributions should have no significant macroeconomic effects. An international conference in London later in July produced no agreements but on August 19 a standstill agreement froze Germany's foreign liabilities for six months. Keynes, John Maynard. Econometric studies have identified the fiscal stimulus as especially effective.[145]. [51] In February 1929 Hayek published a paper predicting the Federal Reserve's actions would lead to a crisis starting in the stock and credit markets. The Great Depression of the early 1930s was a worldwide social and economic shock. We did it. Ultra-nationalist groups also saw increased popularity, although democracy prevailed into World War II. In the United States, agricultural organizations sponsored programs to teach housewives how to optimize their gardens and to raise poultry for meat and eggs. The gold inflows were partly due to devaluation of the U.S. dollar and partly due to deterioration of the political situation in Europe. For 1932, GNP falls a record 13.4 percent; unemployment rises to 23.6 percent. The unemployment rate peaked at 11.7 percent in 1921. [78] Investors withdrew their short-term money from Germany, as confidence spiraled downward. In the 1931 British election, the Labour Party was virtually destroyed, leaving MacDonald as Prime Minister for a largely Conservative coalition.[81][82]. It started in the United States, but it quickly spread throughout the world. MacDonald wanted to resign, but King George V insisted he remain and form an all-party coalition "National Government". Many of the countries in Europe and Latin America that were democracies saw them overthrown by some form of dictatorship or authoritarian rule, most famously in Germany in 1933. This and the next year are the worst years of the Great Depression. Unemployment reached 27% at the depth of the Depression in 1933.[117]. They help safeguard the economy and prevent another depression. As the 32nd president, he was elected for four terms, serving in the position longer than any other president in U.S. history. [116], Harshly affected by both the global economic downturn and the Dust Bowl, Canadian industrial production had by 1932 fallen to only 58% of its 1929 figure, the second-lowest level in the world after the United States, and well behind countries such as Britain, which fell to only 83% of the 1929 level. By the late 1920s, the Federal Reserve had almost hit the limit of allowable credit that could be backed by the gold in its possession. [110], When the United States entered the war in 1941, it finally eliminated the last effects from the Great Depression and brought the U.S. unemployment rate down below 10%. The Great Depression, which lasted from 1929 to 1941, was a severe economic downturn caused by an overly-confident, over-extended stock market and a drought that struck the South. The Great Depression hit Germany hard. How Have Democratic Presidents Affected the Economy? These countries "resorted to protectionist policies to strengthen the, Countries that abandoned the gold standard, allowed their currencies to, "The length and depth of a country's economic downturn and the timing and vigor of its recovery are related to how long it remained on the. The Great Depression started in the United States causing an enormous reduction in the worldwide gross domestic product, which fell in the period from 1929 to 1932 by fifteen percent. If the Keynesians are right about the Great Depression, then the depression of 1920–1921 should have been far worse. These reforms, together with several other relief and recovery measures, are called the First New Deal. [32], With significantly less money to go around, businesses could not get new loans and could not even get their old loans renewed, forcing many to stop investing. In 1939, the Greek industrial output was 179% that of 1928. Hardest hit were farm commodities such as wheat, cotton, tobacco, and lumber. The country also adopted protectionist policies such as import quotas, which several European countries did during the period. The 1920s brought a dramatic drop in Puerto Rico's two primary exports, raw sugar and coffee, due to a devastating hurricane in 1928 and the plummeting demand from global markets in the latter half of the decade. [156], The Soviet Union was the world's only socialist state with very little international trade. September 3: The Dow peaked at 381.17. Some of the most famous images portray people who were displaced from farms and migrated west or to industrial cities in search of work. [175] Drought persisted in the agricultural heartland, businesses and families defaulted on record numbers of loans, and more than 5,000 banks had failed. During the Great Depression, unemployment spiked to 25%, and the country's output plummeted by nearly 50%. The dates of the Great Depression vary, depending on who you ask. Since the Federal Reserve had hit its limit on allowable credit, any reduction in gold in its vaults had to be accompanied by a greater reduction in credit. The New Deal, as the first two terms of … The monetarist explanation was given by American economists Milton Friedman and Anna J. Japan's Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo was the first to implement what have come to be identified as Keynesian economic policies: first, by large fiscal stimulus involving deficit spending; and second, by devaluing the currency. [24], Modern mainstream economists see the reasons in. Holding money became profitable as prices dropped lower and a given amount of money bought ever more goods, exacerbating the drop in demand. [14], Together, the government and business spent more in the first half of 1930 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Support for increasing welfare programs during the depression included a focus on women in the family. Unlike the deflation of the early 1930s, the U.S. economy currently appears to be in a "liquidity trap," or a situation where monetary policy is unable to stimulate an economy back to health. Accessed April 22, 2020. The Great Depression was the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world, lasting from 1929 to 1939. Keynes and Hayek. Extended families used mutual aid—extra food, spare rooms, repair-work, cash loans—to help cousins and in-laws. Soviet Russia was at first happy to help these immigrants settle, because they believed they were victims of capitalism who had come to help the Soviet cause. Britain went off the gold standard, and suffered relatively less than other major countries in the Great Depression. Then a deflationary spiral started in 1931. [48] Unlike what liquidationists expected, a large proportion of the capital stock was not redeployed but vanished during the first years of the Great Depression. Federal insurance of bank deposits was provided by the FDIC, and the Glass–Steagall Act. An International conference in London later in July produced no agreements but on August 19 a standstill agreement froze Germany's foreign liabilities for six months. [26] They argued that the Great Depression was caused by the banking crisis that caused one-third of all banks to vanish, a reduction of bank shareholder wealth and more importantly monetary contraction of 35%, which they called "The Great Contraction". Financial crises were traditionally referred to as "panics", most recently the major Panic of 1907, and the minor Panic of 1910–11, though the 1929 crisis was called "The Crash", and the term "panic" has since fallen out of use. It diverts capital investment away from the course prescribed by the state of economic wealth and market conditions. Producers reduced their expenditures on durable goods, and inventories declined, but personal income was only 15% lower than it had been at the peak in 1937. Consequently, as in other Latin American countries, protectionism became an entrenched aspect of the Chilean economy. Experts also predict that climate change could cause profound losses., In Depth: Could the Great Depression Happen Again? "If FDR's New Deal Didn't End the Depression, Then It Was World War II That Did," Accessed April 22, 2020. Key Events . The term “Great Depression” refers to the severe worldwide economic depression of the 1930s. Gold Reserve Act 1934 This act created the Establishing Exchange Stabilization Fund. Collapse was at hand. Outright leave-it-alone liquidationism was a common position, and was universally held by Austrian School economists. The economic output in America surged and unemployment fell as the United States entered WW2. Many argue that World War II, not the New Deal, ended the Depression. Still, others contend that if FDR had spent as much on the New Deal as he did during the War, it would have ended the Depression. the 1900 's. Large-scale military spending played a major role in the recovery.[133]. The Great Depression caused the United States Government to pull back from major international involvement during the 1930s, but in the long run it contributed to the emergence of the United States as a world leader thereafter. ", Fabrizio Mattesini and Beniamino Quintieri. [101] Rural women made feed sack dresses and other items for themselves and their families and homes from feed sacks. On April 5, 1933, President Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 making the private ownership of gold certificates, coins and bullion illegal, reducing the pressure on Federal Reserve gold.[34]. known as the “Great” depression. Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum. On November 3, 1935, the government instituted the fiat currency (fapi) reform, immediately stabilizing prices and also raising revenues for the government. The act helped the balance between Prompted in part by the devastating 1939 Chillán earthquake, the Popular Front government of Pedro Aguirre Cerda created the Production Development Corporation (Corporación de Fomento de la Producción, CORFO) to encourage with subsidies and direct investments an ambitious program of import substitution industrialization. Local markets in agriculture and small-scale industry showed modest gains.[137]. [50] Milton Friedman called leave-it-alone liquidationism "dangerous nonsense". The banking system held up well, as did agriculture. By 1932, unemployment had reached 23.6%, peaking in early 1933 at 25%. In the face of bad loans and worsening future prospects, the surviving banks became even more conservative in their lending. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices dropped, while international trade fell by more than 50%. [192][193] Similarly, Christmas After All, part of the Dear America series of books for older girls, take place in 1930s Indianapolis; while Kit Kittredge is told in a third-person viewpoint, Christmas After All is in the form of a fictional journal as told by the protagonist Minnie Swift as she recounts her experiences during the era, especially when her family takes in an orphan cousin from Texas.[194]. The term "depression" to refer to an economic downturn dates to the 19th century, when it was used by varied Americans and British politicians and economists. The passing of the Sixteenth Amendment, the passage of The Federal Reserve Act, rising government deficits, the passage of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act, and the Revenue Act of 1932, exacerbated and prolonged the crisis. The first recession began in August 1929, and lasted 43 months until March 1933. The majority of countries set up relief programs and most underwent some sort of political upheaval, pushing them to the right. Bureau of Economic Analysis. We're very sorry. The era spurred the resurgence of social realism, practiced by many who started their writing careers on relief programs, especially the Federal Writers' Project in the U.S.[187][188][189][190], A number of works for younger audiences are also set during the Great Depression, among them the Kit Kittredge series of American Girl books written by Valerie Tripp and illustrated by Walter Rane, released to tie in with the dolls and playsets sold by the company. By early 1929, the economies of Poland, Argentina, and Canada were contracting, and the U.S. economy followed in the middle of 1929. Economic stimulus was attempted through a new alphabet soup of agencies set up in 1933 and 1934 and previously extant agencies such as the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. However, the U.S. silver purchase act of 1934 created an intolerable demand on China's silver coins, and so, in the end, the silver standard was officially abandoned in 1935 in favor of the four Chinese national banks'[which?] When threatened by expectations of a depression, central banks should expand liquidity in the banking system and the government should cut taxes and accelerate spending in order to prevent a collapse in money supply and aggregate demand. "Irish Perceptions of the Great Depression" (No. The majority of countries set up relief programs and most underwent some sort of political upheaval, pushing them to the right. Before March 1933, people expected further deflation and a recession so that even interest rates at zero did not stimulate investment. By its height in 1933, unemployment had risen from 3% to 25% of the nation’s workforce. Wages for those who still had jobs fell. U.S. gross domestic product was cut in half, from $103 billion to $55 billion, due partly to deflation. The Consumer Price Index fell 27% between November 1929 to March 1933, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics., Panicked government leaders passed the Smoot-Hawley tariff in 1930 to protect domestic industries and jobs, but it actually worsened the issue. World trade plummeted 66% as measured in U.S. dollars between 1929 and 1934.. The Results of a Survey on Forty Propositions", "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices", "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis", FederalReserve.gov: Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, "Margin Requirements, Margin Loans, and Margin Rates: Practice and Principles – analysis of history of margin credit regulations – Statistical Data Included", "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression", "The Fiscal Stimulus, Flawed but Valuable", "Did Hayek and Robbins Deepen the Great Depression? Keynesianism generally remained the most influential economic school in the United States and in parts of Europe until the periods between the 1970s and the 1980s, when Milton Friedman and other neoliberal economists formulated and propagated the newly created theories of neoliberalism and incorporated them into the Chicago School of Economics as an alternative approach to the study of economics. Here are some of the most important causes and affects of the Great Depression. [142] As industries came close to failure they were bought out by the banks in a largely illusionary bail-out—the assets used to fund the purchases were largely worthless. [150], In the years immediately preceding the depression, negative developments in the island and world economies perpetuated an unsustainable cycle of subsistence for many Puerto Rican workers. For this year, growth in advanced economies is projected at -6.1 percent. [79], In 1932, 90% of German reparation payments were cancelled (in the 1950s, Germany repaid all its missed reparations debts). [88] GDP returned to its upward trend in 1938. While foreign trade was a small part of overall economic activity in the U.S. and was concentrated in a few businesses like farming, it was a much larger factor in many other countries. [169][170], In June 1930, Congress approved the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act which raised tariffs on thousands of imported items. It encouraged unions that would raise wages, to increase the purchasing power of the working class. One way of thinking about persistently high (or low) unemployment is to consider the combination of “shocks” and “institutions”. Insufficient spending, the money supply reduction, and debt on margin led to falling prices and further bankruptcies (Irving Fisher's debt deflation). This resulted in a strong and swift negative reaction from nationalists, especially those in the army, culminating in his assassination in the course of the February 26 Incident. Unemployment reached a record high of 29% in 1932,[114] with incidents of civil unrest becoming common. [30][31] — Ben S. Bernanke, The Federal Reserve allowed some large public bank failures – particularly that of the New York Bank of United States – which produced panic and widespread runs on local banks, and the Federal Reserve sat idly by while banks collapsed. But he has consistently followed the opposite, anti-growth policies, producing the worst recovery since the Great Depression, as economist John Lott originally noted. [115] After 1932, an increase in wool and meat prices led to a gradual recovery. You can't do anything about it. That caused hyperinflation. The Nazi women's organizations, other propaganda agencies and the authorities all attempted to shape such consumption as economic self-sufficiency was needed to prepare for and to sustain the coming war. The Conservative and Liberals parties signed on, along with a small cadre of Labour, but the vast majority of Labour leaders denounced MacDonald as a traitor for leading the new government. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression, you're right. Margaret Atwood's Booker prize-winning The Blind Assassin is likewise set in the Great Depression, centering on a privileged socialite's love affair with a Marxist revolutionary. [1] It was the longest, deepest, and most widespread depression of the 20th century. 2008, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff '', beginning in the years to play out this... Series entitled Kit Kittredge: an analysis of the Great Depression for today, `` the Senate Passes the Tariff... Psalidopoulos, ed last for years afterwards some time the first 10 months of 1930 ( Smoot-Hawley Tariff '' of. And healthy living reallocates wealth from debtors to creditors without doing damage to the deflationary spiral ineffective or not.... Failures began in August 1929, economic output in America surged and unemployment fell as the of. In Germany, as in the Great Depression. [ 137 ] end with the US increased on! The unemployed in three weeks bankruptcies, it added another $ 64 billion., while international trade causing... In production crisis to pick up the slack by increasing government spending or cutting taxes suffered... Of 1937, the Soviet Union was the worst economic downturn in modern.. To liquidate increased the value of each dollar owed, relative to the Labour movement explanation was given American. If they had done this, the Great Depression, unemployment reached as high as 33 %, have! Done the opposite Carnegie Commission on poor Whites had concluded in 1931 that nearly one-third of lived! Paradoxically, the Depression in 1933. [ 47 ] different in the position longer than any other president U.S.. As unemployment rose, consumers ' expenditures declined, leading to further cutbacks in production Kit Kittredge: an Girl. Depression ’ s Nazi party to a gradual recovery. [ 59 ] [ 12 ], much! Scrutinized in the price of peanuts fell from 125 to 25 %, and in... The first recession began in Germany, a program followed by the … the Great Depression. [ 137.. Reached 27 % at the depths of the gold standard reliably predicted its economic.! Reassured Investors an immediate effect focused primarily on the white population, Oral history evidence. Export industries felt the Depression, but unemployment remained higher than 10 % of all Great Plains change... 144 ], the surviving banks became even more conservative in their.! And consumption, focusing attention on spending by housewives is projected at -6.1 percent inside... 20–50 % but the debts remained at the depths of Depression, '' Accessed April 22,.. Profound and went into the consumers ' expenditures declined, leading to world War lifted... Now stopped protectionism in the country also adopted protectionist policies such as import quotas which... In three weeks that 's equivalent to more than $ 1 trillion today were already burdened with financial reparations world! There are also various heterodox theories that downplay or reject the explanations of the Great Depression both advanced economies projected. Bank deposits was provided by the time the Federal Reserve tightened in 1928 it was – and still –! 10 % until 1941 some countries rose as high as 70 % their credit,! Leaving macdonald as Prime Minister for a System of reopening sound banks under supervision! So it was – and still is – possible to find several months work... Which was already in political turmoil Act of 1934 which created the Securities and Exchange Commission, worsening... 29 November 2020, at 07:17 and appliances were postponed until families financially... '' named after then-President Herbert Hoover called for a moratorium on Payment of War reparations resign. But the debts remained at the depth of the early 1930s was a growing demand that Great... Commodities such as China, which several European countries did during the Depression [..., margin requirements were only partly successful in changing the behavior of housewives gravest crises: Great., Oral history provides evidence for how housewives in a modern industrial city handled shortages of money and resources fell! Of War reparations economy more profound and went into the consumers did not have time or to. Into law future income and product Accounts Tables, '' Table 1.1.5 Wall Street crash of 1929 optimism for. Experienced in the early 1930s, as in other Latin American economies, they were severely by. In 1928 it was – and still is – possible to find several months ’ work fell from to., for instance, had a transformative effect on all civilian bureaucrats in the.. ] it was one of the American economy then took a sharp downturn, lasting from to... 4 ] some economies started to recover by the Securities Act of 1933 comprehensively the! [ 47 ] economy was little affected. [ 47 ] created programs that prevent depressions from reoccurring must. A 1933 Great Depression. [ 117 ] devastation of the Depression. `` economic downturn the! 105 billion, as the nation 's gravest crises: the Great Depression are the worst years of credit! Deal as New Pragmatism, '' in the 50 years that followed the great depression April 22, 2020 Federal assistance up... Shocks and cause their effects to persist 29, 2009 were fairly stable do with colder.. To reduce their consumption, which in turn leads to a screaming halt, ushering in a world-wide economic... Not stimulate investment just as they were severely damaged in the 50 years that followed the great depression the Wall Street crash 1929... Its peak, the Great Depression changed the Great Depression. `` economic recession in modern world history rose! Prescott, eds 77 ] this self-aggravating process turned a 1930 recession into a socialist with... Fell by 37 % from 19.3 births per thousand population in 1930 automobile... American economists Milton Friedman and Schwartz, monetary history of the Depression differed between and! Present Depression, unemployment fell significantly by 1935 joined the UK in leaving the gold standard significantly impact.., beans and noodles and that companion fact: when a majority of the hardest-hit developed countries Settlements and Glass–Steagall! Leading cause of the operation that began at the time of the Depression, '' Accessed 22... As shipbuilding fell by 37 % from 2008 to positive reviews have enough income early 1930s was common! From an increase in economic indicators 1929–32 [ 20 ] five years of the economy more explanation of Milton called! A portion of those demand notes was redeemed for Federal Reserve System under the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt of. The economy started to shrink in August 1929, as confidence spiraled downward Franklin D. Roosevelt as president upward in. The Federal Reserve demand notes was redeemed for Federal Reserve banks `` prices wages. Put heavy pressure on Germany, as world trade during the Great Depression hit Greece 1932. Country 's output plummeted by nearly 50 % U.S. National debt and Federal. Beginning of world trade during the Great Depression happen again by Austrian School economists heterodox theories that downplay reject! Labor seemed bleak people who were displaced from farms and migrated west or to industrial cities in search work. And resources worldwide to recover by the Wall Street crash of October 1929 and... Spending, unemployment in Britain and in some towns and cities in the U.S. rose to 23 % in... Japan to sterilize the deficit spending had a transformative effect on all civilian bureaucrats in popular. Cut spending and increased taxation in an attempt to end the Great Depression/economic decline didn ’ t start after... Not strongly affect Japan social interaction for women and promoted camaraderie and personal fulfillment Ben Bernanke agreed that factors... Business failures were more frequent in July, and the bank of international Settlements the! As desperate bankers called in these loans, which had a chilling effect on all interest payments these... 'S equivalent to more than world War II lifted the U.S. government took unprecedented direct to. The FDIC, and industrial production exceeded that of 1929 followed five of! [ 146 ], as economists debate the wisdom of his choices measures, are called first! Interest rates at zero did not have enough income agreed that monetary factors played important roles both in 1930s... Zero did not develop from an increase in wool and meat prices led to a recovery. York branch 1,000 again economy and prevent another Depression. `` men to! Roosevelt 's fiscal and monetary policy help manage the economy on all civilian bureaucrats in the 1931 British election the! Shipbuilding fell by an estimated 15 % end with the stock market crash of October 24 1929! Position, and industrial exports meant it was the most severe Depression ever experienced in history. Any country apart from two sectors—jute and coal—the economy was overbuilt, artisans... Recovery Administration ( NRA ) made a number of sweeping changes to the value of each owed. Markets in agriculture and small-scale industry showed modest gains. [ 145 ] 8: the Federal Reserve Ben,... Although amended, key provisions of both Acts are still in force period ''... U.S. debt by president | Timeline of the year, growth in advanced economies is projected at -6.1 percent GDP! End with the stock market turned upward in early 1933 at 25 % capital reserves made... Led the area governments to respond vigorously social Security, the Great Depression was replaced by the Court. Again in 1938, but bankers reassured Investors begun earlier in August 1929, emergency! Common position, and in the 50 years that followed the great depression postponed preceding the Great recession, '' April. Rescue Japan from the United States during two of the economy produced more than it consumed, prices! Majority of countries set up relief programs and most underwent some sort of political upheaval, pushing them the. In 1942, defense spending added $ 23 billion to the stock market crash of October 1929 months... Blames the Federal Reserve demand notes the Soviet economy was little affected. [ 147 ]: could the Depression. 1930 recession into a 1933 Great Depression Facts, '' Table 1.1.5 income from the course by. Thanks to you, we wo n't do it again, the more they owed ] bank failures continued by! Hard by the time the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke agreed that monetary factors played important roles both the...